Do Past Hockey Statistics Predict Future Results?
Hockey statistics are almost as old as the game itself. If you glance throughout history back to ancient times you’ll see that some type of statistical record keeping almost always seemed present. So the question is do past hockey statistics predict future results?
Here’s some interesting NHL historical point stats. Of course some of these players no longer play hockey but you might want to follow those that still do and see if there past performances are indicative of their current performances. That may better shed light on whether the past does infact project the future.
With players like Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, or Mark Messier this would be a resounding yes. It seems year after year these top players show of their talents again and again.
From 1979 to 1999 Wayne Gretzky totaled 2857 points. Mark Messier from 1979 to 2004 had 1887 points and Gordie Howe had 1850 points from 1946 to 1980.
From 1988 to 2005 Joe Sakic had 1458 points, Mark Recchi 1254, Mike Modano 1159, Jeremy Roenick 1135, Rod Brind’Amour 960, and Trevor Linden 826 points.
From 1990 to 2005 Jaromir Jagr had 1397 points, Mats Sundin 1130, Sergei Fedorov 1046, Doug Weight 872, Peter Bondra 872, Tony Amonte 870, Tony Amonte 860, and John LeClair with 793 points.
Goal statistics are also quite interesting. From 1979 to 2004 Wayne Gretzky made 894 goals, Mike Gartner 708, Mark Messier 694, Joe Mullen 502, and Brian Propp with 425.
Meanwhile goal statistics ending for 2005 saw Brett Hull with a total of 741, Mario Lemieux with 690, Steve Yzerman 684, Luc Robitaille 666, Dave Andreychuk 640, Brendan Shanahan 584, Jaromir Jagr 577, Joe Sakic 563, Joe Nieuwendyk 548, Pierre Turgeon 505, Peter Bondra 492, and Jeremy Roenick with 482 goals.
During the same period those players that saw less than 480 goals were Teemu Selanne, Mike Modano, Mark Recchi, Mats Sundin, Alexander Mogilny, Gary Roberts, Tony Amonte, John LeClair, Rod Brind’Armour, Eric Lindros, Trevor Linden, Scott Mellanby, Scott Young, Geoff Sanderson, Paul Kariya, Zigmund Palffy, Bill Guerin, Markus Nasland, Alexei Yashin, Alexei Kovalev, and Peter Nedved.
Great so we know who the top point makers were and who the top goal makers were but statistically who’s been the best goalies?
ESPN.com says Dominik Hasek, Miikka Kiprusoff, Marty Turco, Tomas Vokoun, Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, Manny Fernandez, Martin Gerber, and Ed Belfour are the top NHL goalies. So here’s a little trivia on these guys and a few other top notch goalies.
Martin Brodeur is one of those guys that’s really hard to beat and at 33 he’s accomplished everything in his career but he’s still got plenty of great hockey years ahead.
Roberto Luongo could possibly be the next great NHL goalie. In 2003-04 he played 72 games on a Florida team with a weak defense and as a result faced more rubber than any other goalie. This year is no different as he has already posted 2 shutouts.
Marty Turco has his career goals against average of just 1.93 and his career save percentage of .921. Those numbers are downright impressive!
Andrew Raycroft – This rookie goalie post a 2.05 goals against average and a .926 save percentage. Pretty impressive numbers and he certainly deserves to be on this list winning the Calder trophy.
Tomas Vokoun might not have the name recognition of some of the but he’s truly a workhorse. He’s played 69 and 73 games the past 2 seasons and he almost led the Predators to a series win over the Red Wings. This year looks like it will be the year that he really establishes himself.
Miikka Kipprusoff is a goalie that seems to get things done. His saves this season have been outstanding and if he keeps it up you could see Kipprusoff one of the most sought after goalies in quite some time.
Ed Belfour and Dominik Hasek both have a past winning Stanley Cups and Vezinas. How there seasons play out this year does remain to be seen but overall both of these long timers have impressive careers.
And lastly a quick look at the team ranking number to date show Ottawa, Colorado, Dallas, Calgary, Buffalo, Carolina, Vancouver, Detroit, Edmonton, and Minnesota all vying for the top 10 positions. Of course just one game can rearrange the rankings in a hurry and it’s simply too early in the season to know who will come out on top.
Hockey statistics are an interesting way to compare past, present, and future games to see what patterns might develop.
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